{
  "data": {
    "rows": 731,
    "columns": 16,
    "future_rows": 100,
    "missing": {
      "季节": 0,
      "年": 0,
      "月": 0,
      "节假日": 0,
      "星期": 0,
      "工作日": 0,
      "天气": 0,
      "气温": 0,
      "体感温度": 0,
      "湿度": 0,
      "风速": 0,
      "总骑行量": 0
    },
    "duplicate_dates": 0,
    "target_min": 22,
    "target_max": 8714,
    "target_mean": 4504.3488372093025
  },
  "initial_comparison": [
    {
      "模型": "梯度提升树",
      "RMSE": 651.1440567037434,
      "MAE": 448.99523765137667,
      "R2": 0.8942640825672749
    },
    {
      "模型": "随机森林",
      "RMSE": 703.9966504917254,
      "MAE": 450.0664823777129,
      "R2": 0.8764025354772573
    },
    {
      "模型": "支持向量回归",
      "RMSE": 738.1033329574317,
      "MAE": 529.5340809792003,
      "R2": 0.8641365279788986
    },
    {
      "模型": "线性回归",
      "RMSE": 796.4617765623753,
      "MAE": 583.0197588300691,
      "R2": 0.8418029967286178
    },
    {
      "模型": "神经网络",
      "RMSE": 809.7923656712804,
      "MAE": 609.9584660642089,
      "R2": 0.836463110808386
    }
  ],
  "best_model": "梯度提升树",
  "best_test_metrics": {
    "模型": "梯度提升树",
    "RMSE": 651.1440567037434,
    "MAE": 448.99523765137667,
    "R2": 0.8942640825672749
  },
  "cross_validation": {
    "模型": "梯度提升树",
    "RMSE均值": 655.1166606641779,
    "RMSE标准差": 42.75460340121525,
    "MAE均值": 466.577603572732,
    "MAE标准差": 14.719481812429436,
    "R2均值": 0.8818566774188483,
    "R2标准差": 0.023087453303387278
  },
  "importance_method": "GradientBoostingRegressor 内置重要性",
  "top_features": {
    "气温": 0.38973625494728426,
    "年": 0.2984069767787937,
    "季节": 0.0932052430981216,
    "体感温度": 0.07101028400532663,
    "湿度": 0.05891447646010377,
    "天气": 0.029590235728090393,
    "风速": 0.026177907657402667,
    "月": 0.01607120463407045
  },
  "future_prediction": {
    "min": 1319,
    "max": 6025,
    "mean": 3775.15
  },
  "outputs": {
    "figures": [
      "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/figures/actual_vs_predicted.png",
      "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/figures/feature_importance.png",
      "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/figures/future_prediction_trend.png",
      "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/figures/historical_trend.png",
      "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/figures/residual_distribution.png"
    ],
    "best_model": "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/models/best_bike_demand_model.pkl",
    "prediction_excel": "/root/bike_course_design/outputs/2013前100天骑行量预测结果.xlsx"
  }
}